Comparisons Math & Statistics

Relative Risk vs Odds Ratio

Two ways to compare an outcome between two groups: how they are calculated from a 2 × 2 table, why they agree for rare outcomes and diverge for common ones, and which to report.

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Take a 2 × 2 table: a exposed with the outcome, b exposed without, c unexposed with, d unexposed without. The relative risk divides the two risks, (a / (a + b)) / (c / (c + d)). The odds ratio divides the two odds, (a / b) / (c / d) = ad / bc. Calculate both, with confidence intervals, in the Relative Risk Calculator; see Odds Ratio for the definition.

Worked example

Of 100 exposed people 40 have the outcome, and of 100 unexposed 20 do. Risks are 0.40 and 0.20, so the relative risk is 2.0. The odds are 40/60 and 20/80, so the odds ratio is 2.667.

When they agree and when they do not

Baseline risk Exposed risk (RR = 2) Odds ratio
1 % 2 % 2.02
5 % 10 % 2.11
10 % 20 % 2.25
20 % 40 % 2.67
40 % 80 % 6.00
  • When the outcome is rare (under about 10 %), the odds ratio is a good approximation of the relative risk.
  • When it is common, the odds ratio overstates the effect, and readers who treat it as a risk ratio will be misled.
  • Both equal 1 when the exposure makes no difference, and both have the same direction (above 1 means more).

Which to report

  • Cohort studies and trials, where risks are observed: report the relative risk (and the absolute difference).
  • Case-control studies, logistic regression: report the odds ratio, and say it is an odds ratio.
  • For decisions, absolute numbers (risk difference, number needed to treat) usually say more than either ratio.

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See also

  • Glossary Odds Ratio
    An odds ratio compares the odds of an outcome in one group with the odds in another; a value of 1 means no difference.
  • Glossary Probability
    Probability is a number from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain) that measures how likely an event is.
  • Glossary Confidence interval
    A confidence interval is a range around a sample estimate that would contain the true value in a stated share (such as 95%) of repeated.
  • Glossary p-value
    A p-value is the probability of seeing results at least as extreme as yours if there were really no effect.
  • Cheat sheet Statistics Formulas Cheat Sheet
    Mean, standard deviation, z-score, confidence intervals, chi-square.

Frequently Asked Questions

The odds ratio, because a case-control study fixes how many cases and controls it has, so risk cannot be estimated directly. The odds ratio is the one effect measure that still works.

Only if the outcome is rare. At 40 % baseline risk, a doubled risk (80 %) corresponds to an odds ratio of 6.

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